Example Results Estimated Flu Burden
Disease Severity Pyramid
This is an estimate of influenza-associated deaths. If you added an expansion factor for deaths, this number includes both in-and out-of hospital deaths. If you did not add an expansion factor for deaths, this number only represents deaths occurring inside of a hospital.
This is an estimate of influenza-associated cases that are hospitalized and are severe enough to require intensive care. Often these cases are termed as “critically ill” and may receive care in an intensive care unit (ICU) if available. These are a proportion of all hospitalized cases.
This is an estimate of influenza-associated cases that are hospitalized, but are not so severe that they are deemed to be critically ill or are treated in an intensive care unit.
This is an estimate of influenza-associated mild/moderate cases that are attended by healthcare providers in an outpatient setting.
This is an estimate of influenza-associated mild/moderate cases that don’t seek medical care for their illness.
Summary of Estimated Influenza Burden
| Total | Per 100k population | |
|---|---|---|
| Deaths(95% Confidence Interval) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) |
| Hospitalized Cases(95% CI) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) |
| Mild/Moderate Cases(95% CI) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) |
| Case Fatality Risk (CFR) | X.XX% |
Estimated Influenza Cases and Deaths by Age Group and Pyramid Level
| All ages | 0-4 years | 5-14 years | 15-49 years | 50-64 years | 65 and over | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deaths(95% Confidence Interval) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) |
| Hospitalized Cases(95% CI) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) |
| Critical ICU Cases(95% CI) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) |
| Non-Critical ICU Cases(95% CI) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) |
| Mild/Moderate Cases(95% CI) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) |
| Attended Cases(95% CI) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) |
| Unattended Cases(95% CI) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) |
Average (mean) estimated Influenza Cases and Deaths Per 100k Population by Age Group and Pyramid Level
| All ages | 0-4 years | 5-14 years | 15-49 years | 50-64 years | 65 and over | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deaths per 100k Population(95% Confidence Interval) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) |
| Hospitalized Cases per 100k(95% CI) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) |
| Critical ICU Cases per 100k(95% CI) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) |
| Non-Critical ICU Cases per 100k(95% CI) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) |
| Mild/Moderate Cases per 100k(95% CI) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) |
| Attended Cases per 100k(95% CI) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) |
| Unattended Cases per 100k(95% CI) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) |
Estimated Influenza Hospitalized Cases by Syndrome
| # of Hospitalizations | % of all Hospitalizations | |
|---|---|---|
| Respiratory Hospitalizations(95% Confidence Interval) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X.XX% |
| Circulatory Hospitalizations(95% CI) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X.XX% |
| Other Non-respiratory, Non-circulatory Hospitalizations(95% CI) | X,XXX(X,XXX to X,XXX) | X.XX% |
Understanding your results
The Flu Tool aims to help public health leaders, policymakers, and researchers estimate seasonal flu burden at the national level or in specific sub-populations. These estimates can inform decision-making about flu-related interventions (e.g., disease surveillance programs, vaccination campaigns) and associated resource allocations, based on the defined populations’ needs.
How to interpret your results
The Flu Tool provides one approach to estimating burden of disease and provides one potential input into the decision-making process for resource allocation and public health interventions. These estimates are based on limited data as well as multipliers and other assumptions that introduce additional uncertainty. The tool calculates confidence intervals (CI) to convey the degree of precision and uncertainty associated with burden estimates. It is important to note, however, that while this tool provides evidence-based estimates for flu morbidity and mortality, it is not a replacement for flu surveillance and testing. The results are not definitive answers regarding seasonal flu burden of disease, and the Flu Tool does not predict the burden for future flu seasons.
Using your results
The results of this tool can be used for many purposes, including:
- Estimating the magnitude of flu-related mild/moderate cases, hospitalizations, critical cases, and deaths in specific population
- Observing how seasonal flu burden may differ by age group across a specific population
- Comparing the estimated burden of seasonal flu to other diseases and public health problems
- Serving as a key data point in national- or sub-national-level policy and program discussions about reducing seasonal flu burden
- Exploring the effects of disease severity and surveillance data quality on seasonal flu burden
Further resources
The World Health Organization (WHO) Manual for Estimating Disease Burden Associated With Seasonal Influenza provides guidance for estimating the burden of disease for seasonal flu and other complementary purposes.
Methodology
Learn more about our Methodology here.